As part of a Sea Grant funded project, we are forecasting higher mean oxygen levels for the Neuse Estuary this summer (July-August). The forecast is based on high estuary flushing over the winter and early spring, followed by a drop in flow (and nutrient load) in May. Higher average oxygen levels can reduce the risk of severe fish kills, though meteorological variability make such events difficult to predict in advance.
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Researchers Forecast Healthier Neuse River Oxygen Levels
Researchers are expecting severe hypoxia this summer in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has forecasted a ‘Dead Zone’ of 20,300 sq km, roughly equivalent to the land area of Massachusetts. The best estimate from the NCSU/Obenour Lab model is 20,800 sq km. This estimate reflects the above average flow and nutrient loading from the Mississippi River this spring, coupled with strong westward winds to deliver nutrients and freshwater over the Louisiana-Texas shelf.
Considering the uncertainty in these predictions, largely attributable to summer hydro-meteorological variability, there is a 22% chance that a record hypoxic zone could be measured by the LUMCON shelfwide cruise this summer.
Researchers are expecting an approximately average hypoxic zone this summer in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has predicted a ‘Dead Zone’ between 8,000 and 22,000 sq km (90% predictive interval) with a mean estimate of 15300 sq km (roughly the size of Connecticut). The best estimate from the Obenour et al. model is 13,800 sq km. This estimate reflects slightly above average nutrient loading but below average westward wind velocities, which may reduce the delivery of nutrients and freshwater over the shelf.