Combining hypoxia and shrimp distribution models, we provide an experimental forecast of the likely shrimp distribution in the summer of 2023.  Our intent is to verify and improve on these forecasts in future years, with the goal of informing the shrimp fishery and associated management organizations.  Read more here!

Researchers are expecting a relatively small hypoxic zone this summer in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has forecasted a ‘Dead Zone’ of 10,800 sq km. The best estimate from the NCSU/Obenour Lab model is 11,400 sq km, approaching the size of the state of Connecticut. This estimate reflects substantially below-average flow and nutrient loading from the Mississippi River this spring, coupled with moderate westward winds to deliver nutrients and freshwater over the Louisiana-Texas shelf.

These predictions include substantial uncertainty due to summer hydro-meteorological variability.  However, there is <1% chance that a record hypoxic zone (>22,700 km²) will be measured by the LUMCON shelfwide cruise this summer. It is also important to note that extreme weather can temporarily reduce the hypoxic zone, as in the case of Hurricane Hanna in 2020.

In collaboration with Kevin Craig (NOAA), our team produced a summer shrimp distribution forecast for the northern Gulf of Mexico.  The forecast was informed by our hypoxia forecasting model.  This is an experimental product that we hope to refine in future years.  Read more about it here with details here!

As part of a Sea Grant project, we are forecasting below-average oxygen levels for the Neuse Estuary this summer (July-August).  The forecast is based on moderate flow conditions over the last half year.  Forecasted oxygen levels are conducive to fish kills, though meteorological variability make such events difficult to predict.  The following Sea Grant post shows the 2022 forecast as well as a retrospective assessment of least year’s (2021) forecast.

Neuse Oxygen Levels Could Bring Summer Fish Kills

Researchers are expecting moderately severe hypoxia this summer in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has forecasted a ‘Dead Zone’ of 13,900 sq km. Similar to last year, the best estimate from the NCSU/Obenour Lab model is 13,200 sq km, nearly the size of the state of Connecticut. This estimate reflects below-average flow and nutrient loading from the Mississippi River this spring, coupled with moderate westward winds to deliver nutrients and freshwater over the Louisiana-Texas shelf.

These predictions include substantial uncertainty due to summer hydro-meteorological variability.  However, there is <1% chance that a record hypoxic zone (>22,700 km²) will be measured by the LUMCON shelfwide cruise this summer. It is also important to note that extreme weather can temporarily reduce the hypoxic zone, as in the case of Hurricane Hanna in 2020.