A NOAA-organized ensemble of models has forecasted a HAB Severity Index of about 3.5 for Lake Erie, which corresponds to a maximum 30-day cyanobacteria index (CI-30) of approximately 4.7 for the western basin.

The UM/NC State model is part of this ensemble, and its prediction is for a CI-30 of 4.6, substantially below the long-term (2020-2025) average CI-30 of 8.6. This year, the mild HAB prediction is due to spring phosphorus loads and air temperatures both being slightly below average. In addition, the long-term (approximately decadal) phosphorus load has been gradually declining over the last several years.

These predictions include substantial uncertainty due to summer hydro-meteorological variability.  However, there is <1% chance that a record HAB (CI-30 > 34; SI > 10) will be observed by NOAA this summer.

More information on our forecast can be found here.

Researchers are expecting a moderate-to-large hypoxic zone this summer in the northern Gulf.  A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has forecasted a ‘Dead Zone’ of 18,200 sq km. The NCSU/Obenour Lab model is part of this ensemble, and its prediction is for a hypoxic zone of 14,400 sq km, roughly the size of Connecticut and Rhode Island, combined. Our prediction is somewhat lower than the ensemble because our forecast considers both nutrient loads and flows from the Mississippi River Basin. This year, flows were relatively low, which may reduce water-column stratification, allowing more oxygen into bottom waters. At the same time, loads are above average, and moderately strong westward winds are expected to provide substantial delivery of nutrients and freshwater over the Louisiana-Texas shelf.  Thus, despite the low flows, we still predict a moderately large hypoxic zone.

These predictions include substantial uncertainty due to summer hydro-meteorological variability.  However, there is <1% chance that a record hypoxic zone (>22,700 km²) will be measured by the LUMCON shelfwide cruise this summer. It is also important to note that extreme weather can temporarily reduce the hypoxic zone, as in the case of Hurricane Hanna in 2020.

Researchers are expecting a moderately large hypoxic zone this summer in the Northern Gulf.  A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has forecasted a ‘Dead Zone’ of 14,400 sq km. The best estimate from the NCSU/Obenour Lab model is 14,300 sq km, roughly the size of Connecticut and Rhode Island, combined. This estimate reflects moderate flow and nutrient loading from the Mississippi River this spring.  Interestingly, while flows have been above average, loads have been below average, suggesting a reduction in mean nitrogen concentrations in the River. In addition, moderate westward winds are expected to provide the typical delivery of nutrients and freshwater over the Louisiana-Texas shelf.

These predictions include substantial uncertainty due to summer hydro-meteorological variability.  However, there is <1% chance that a record hypoxic zone (>22,700 km²) will be measured by the LUMCON shelfwide cruise this summer. It is also important to note that extreme weather can temporarily reduce the hypoxic zone, as in the case of Hurricane Hanna in 2020.

Researchers are expecting a moderately large hypoxic zone this summer in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has forecasted a ‘Dead Zone’ of 15,100 sq km. The best estimate from the NCSU/Obenour Lab model is 15,700 sq km, roughly the size of Connecticut and Rhode Island, combined. This estimate reflects average flow and nutrient loading from the Mississippi River this spring, coupled with moderately strong westward winds to deliver nutrients and freshwater over the Louisiana-Texas shelf.

These predictions include substantial uncertainty due to summer hydro-meteorological variability.  However, there is <1% chance that a record hypoxic zone (>22,700 km²) will be measured by the LUMCON shelfwide cruise this summer. It is also important to note that extreme weather can temporarily reduce the hypoxic zone, as in the case of Hurricane Hanna in 2020.

Combining hypoxia and shrimp distribution models, we provide an experimental forecast of the likely shrimp distribution in the summer of 2023.  Our intent is to verify and improve on these forecasts in future years, with the goal of informing the shrimp fishery and associated management organizations.  Read more here!