Researchers are expecting severe hypoxia this summer in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has forecasted a ‘Dead Zone’ of 20,300 sq km, roughly equivalent to the land area of Massachusetts. The best estimate from the NCSU/Obenour Lab model is 20,800 sq km. This estimate reflects the above average flow and nutrient loading from the Mississippi River this spring, coupled with strong westward winds to deliver nutrients and freshwater over the Louisiana-Texas shelf.

Considering the uncertainty in these predictions, largely attributable to summer hydro-meteorological variability, there is a 22% chance that a record hypoxic zone could be measured by the LUMCON shelfwide cruise this summer.

Tropical Systems Disrupt Neuse River Oxygen Levels

https://ncseagrant.ncsu.edu/news/2018/07/model-forecasts-severe-hypoxia-through-august-in-neuse-estuary/

Researchers are expecting an approximately average hypoxic zone this summer in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  A NOAA-sponsored ensemble of models has predicted a ‘Dead Zone’ between 8,000 and 22,000 sq km (90% predictive interval) with a mean estimate of 15300 sq km (roughly the size of Connecticut).  The best estimate from the Obenour et al. model is 13,800 sq km.  This estimate reflects slightly above average nutrient loading but below average westward wind velocities, which may reduce the delivery of nutrients and freshwater over the shelf.

Hypoxia and fish kills continue to be common in the Neuse River Estuary of North Carolina.  Our group aims to identify key sources of nitrogen loading within the watershed, and to provide management-relevant hypoxia and algal bloom forecasts for the estuary.  This ongoing research has been featured in two Sea Grant blog posts:

Forecasting Hypoxia, Algal Blooms for the Neuse River Estuary

Investigating Nitrogen Loading Trends in the Neuse River Basin